Lebanon, the Middle East and two wars to come for Israel
January 2, 2013
PREDICTIONS 2013 FOR LEBANON AND THE REGION
The new year, 2013 will not be much different than 2012 was for Lebanon, in that there will be no serious political conflict or economical downfall--particularly for the first 6 months of 2013, Meanwhile, the second half of the year will see more political tension.
National politics will experience difficulties beginning of the year and late summer.
Coalition March 8 will lose of its influence; meanwhile Coalition March 14 runs the danger of internal conflicts. If they can't work out their internal conflict it will harm their influence.
The northern border with Syria will experience tension. Beirut will experience only one bloody moment in 2013. It will hit a single target, create some interim insecurity but then the city will get back to normal. Christians will be able to stay out of trouble, though conflict between Muslim factions will come up. An important political personality but not Party leader will get killed.
Aoun will reinforce his position to that of increased strength, though his health is weak and appears to be within in his chest. He will win a legal battle. Sleiman will be able to keep his position and the party of Joumblatt will win a lot of influence in this year. On a personal level, Walid Joumblatt will have a very important celebration coming up. Hariri will find his that his place in national politics is very strong. He will play a bigger role than he did in 2012. In the last quarter of 2013, he needs to be very careful, as his life is in danger.
Geagea will make news by making himself strong for legal changes. It will be a good year for him as his position in the alliance will become stronger. Nasrallah and his party will remain stable until the second half of the year, then they will have to fight for political influence and he will lose an important supporter. Mikati will find himself losing power. Instability within his alliance will weaken him but remove him from the political landscape.
The STL will make some important progress.
Between 2014 and 2015 an armed conflict between Lebanon and Israel will shock the country.
Within the first months of 2013 President Assad won' lose control of the situation. While President Assad is on a trip abroad, the opposition forces will try to take him down by attacking his inner circle. It will not kill him but put him under real threat and there will be quite a bit of blood shed. The trip will serve to talk about the conflict, trying to find solution. A higher instance (UN or a State) will lead a dialog and agreement will be reached.The Opposition will gain influence and will play a role in Syrias future. Assad will be able to keep himself in power through the year, but it will be a challenge.
The king will be able to restore stability in his country and will make minor constitutional changes.
Though there will be tension at the border between Lebanon and Israel, no war will erupt. Internally the political situation in Israel will calm down.
The border between Israel and Egypt will experience more blood. In the next 5 to 7 years the World will see a new-armed conflict between Egypt and Israel.