Forecast for the Middle East
This analysis is from middle of September till end of 2013 and does not include 2014:
What will be the general situation in Lebanon?
The situation will stay as it is right now. No open war has to be expected. Reaching the end of the year the country will experience an internal political sift, an important decision will be taken and relax the internal political stress.
No direct confrontation with Israel will happen.
The next months till end of the year the border to Syria will stay, as it is, insecurities but no serious instabilities.
The country already went trough the worst moments for this year.
Economically the country will maintain its position.
What is the situation in Beirut und Tripoli?
The capitol will maintain a basic stability, similar to the months of August and September. Inhabitants can relax, worst is behind. An internal agreement will be reached and helping to give people faith.
More violence will erupt in the city but not collapse normal life. In moments of aggression it is important not to loose panic too much, it will come back to normal soon.
Government in Lebanon yes or no?
There won’t be a new Government till end of this year. Minor agreements will be reached but no functioning Government.
Will be Federation in the Lebanon and surrounding countries?
No mayor political change in the landscape.
President Assad will stay until the end of this year and be able to straighten his position.
There will be no direct attack of the USA against Syria. Getting to the end of the year the USA will support more strong the opposition and take stronger political steps against the Syrian Government, including indirect armed actions trough their allies inside the country.
Will Hezbollah and Israel have an open war?
No, not this year but within the next 12 to 18 month there will be a new conflict between those two parties.
Will Hezbollah take more power in the country and if so, to what level?
The next one or two months it will still be difficult for the party. Reaching the end of this year they will gain back power. Trough internal agreements they will be able to stabilize their position. Events in Syria will help them to re-organize themselves and to reach a politically stable position on national level.
What about Iraq.
The country will be able to calm down a little bit. No disintegration of the nation.
Will there be an open conflict between Syria and Turkey?
The border will become more violent again but no direct war between the two countries.
October 26, 2013
More fierce clashes in Tripoli after five days of fierce battles.
November 30, 2013
Ongoing clashes in the city of Tripoli
December 19, 2013
Lebanon has no running Government.
Beirut was able to keep balance, Tripoli went trough heavy fighting. Army was able to control the situation. President Assad is still in power.
The US Government started negotiations with radical Islamic forces within Syria.
No open war between Israel and Hezbollah. The stability in Syria helped Hezbollah to re-organize and keep stability.