The election of the new president, Rodrigo Paz Pereira, marks another turning point in Bolivia's history. After around twenty years of socialist government, the country is once again at a crossroads: it has the opportunity to strike out in a new direction and reposition itself both economically and socially.
I have lived and worked in close connection with Bolivia since 1994. Until I decided to move to Panama in 2018 due to the increasingly unstable political situation, I worked as a clairvoyant and political analyst, intuitively analyzing the country, its people, and its power structures. I have either met many of the influential figures in Bolivian politics personally or analyzed them through the media: from Goni to Tuto, Evo, Arce, Jeanine Áñez, Reyes Villa, Mesa, Jonny, and even the father of the current president. Hardly any of the leading players remained hidden from my intuitive eye.
Over the years, I have published my analyses and predictions on the movements within the political landscape in numerous publications and videos – often at decisive moments in this dynamic history. Particularly striking were my predictions of the coups against Goni and Mesa in the early 2000s.
My deep understanding of Bolivia's political currents also enabled me to shed light on the unrest of 2019 and 2020 in the media at an early stage. Interestingly, during this time I found myself in Venezuela, in the midst of the violent unrest in Caracas, when Juan Guaidó attempted to overthrow the government.
In my opinion, the events of 2019 and 2020 are often misinterpreted. To understand them, one must consider the external power interests at play. A particularly revealing clue came from Elon Musk, who mentioned in a conversation in July 2020 that he was “in a position to overthrow any democracy.” Let's remember: conflicts in Bolivia in 2019/2020, Elon Musk, Tesla, lithium, the Uyuni salt flats... All these terms are closely related. Coincidence...?!
Many of those involved in the overthrow of Evo Morales at the time still insist that it happened without outside influence. But this conviction hardly stands up to realistic analysis. History has repeatedly shown that no political upheaval—neither in Bolivia nor elsewhere—happens without outside support, regardless of whether it is initiated by the left or the right. Whenever political upheavals occur, I have been traveling between South America, the US, Europe, Africa, Central Asia, and the Middle East for over 25 years and can say with a clear conscience: Bolivia is no exception.
Bolivia is a country with a complex identity. Different ethnic groups – whites, indigenous peoples and mestizos – compete for political influence and economic resources. These internal divisions are further exacerbated by geographical divisions: the economically emerging east, with centres such as Santa Cruz, stands in stark contrast to the more traditional, poorer regions in the west, such as La Paz and Cochabamba.
The challenge of bridging these divides is enormous – and, realistically speaking, unlikely to be fully overcome in the current or coming decades. The politics of recent decades have shown this time and again. Instead of contributing to national unity, the socialist governments of the past twenty years in particular have often exacerbated regional and ethnic tensions.
A recurring theme in discussions about Bolivia's future is the question of the appropriate form of government. Given the social and ethnic differences, a federal democracy seems to be a possible way to alleviate the country's structural problems.
Many political scientists argue that a decentralized form of government could help Bolivia to better address regional needs and involve local actors more closely. In my view, such a structure could enable different ethnic groups and regions to bring their traditions, languages, and cultural practices into the national political process—a step that could lead to greater stability and social peace in the long term.
In contrast, Western-style liberal democracy has repeatedly proven over the past three decades that it is not suitable for bringing together the different groups in Bolivia or serving the interests of all sections of the population. This reality leads to the conclusion that the ongoing social division could once again favor authoritarian tendencies in the medium term. When even so-called established democracies such as the US and various European countries are acting in an increasingly authoritarian manner, such a path is also becoming increasingly realistic for Bolivia.
One of Bolivia's key challenges lies in its dependence on natural resources, particularly natural gas and minerals. This dependence has repeatedly made the economy vulnerable to fluctuations.
A real fresh start under Rodrigo Paz Pereira could prove sustainable if the focus can be shifted from a purely commodity-based economy to diversified economic sectors – for example, by promoting tourism. The United Arab Emirates could serve as an example of this.
Bolivia has immense, largely untapped tourism potential. From the impressive Andes to the salt flats of Uyuni to the Amazon and the cultural treasures of the indigenous peoples, the country could become an attractive destination for international visitors.
I organized group tours with tourists from Switzerland, Germany, and Austria in Bolivia for several years. It was only the increasing political uncertainty that forced me to move my activities to Panama. This is a loss, because Bolivia has far more diversity to offer tourists than Panama.
This is where I see my personal mission: to make people aware of the opportunities that Bolivia has to offer and to encourage them to design their projects and visions in such a way that they contribute not only to their own development but also to the economic renewal of the country.
In the wake of geopolitical upheavals in the US and Europe, many people are looking for stable, safe places to live. Countries such as Costa Rica, Panama, and Paraguay have already established themselves as attractive alternatives. Bolivia could also rise to this league – given the appropriate political and economic stability.
However, this requires a strong collective awareness of peace, legal certainty, and economic reliability. Only in this way can the country build trust abroad and attract investors and emigrants alike.
Rodrigo Paz Pereira faces the task of demonstrating clear leadership, restoring trust, and positioning Bolivia as a reliable partner in the international community.
Bolivia is once again at a decisive point in its history. The election of Rodrigo Paz Pereira offers the opportunity to set the country on a new course – toward stability, economic diversity, and social openness.
The road ahead will be difficult. But with consistent leadership, investment in new sectors such as tourism and sustainable energy, and policies that seek unity rather than division, there is a real chance for renewal.
May Paz Pereira and his team succeed in steering Bolivia onto a successful course. For I am convinced that this opportunity could be the last one for many years to come.
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